Hezbollah has firmly rejected the Lebanese government’s
disarmament plan, warning it could spark civil war. The group insists it will
retain its weapons until Israel withdraws from Lebanese territory and its
attacks cease.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Plan
Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite militia and political
force in Lebanon, has categorically rejected the Lebanese government’s order to
disarm, vowing to fight any attempts to force it. The government’s decision,
announced in early August 2025, mandated the Lebanese army to prepare a
takeover of Hezbollah’s weapons by the end of the year as part of a US-backed
ceasefire plan with Israel. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared
in a televised speech that the group would not hand over its arms and accused
the government of bowing to “American-Israeli orders” aimed at ending the
“resistance” against Israeli occupation.
Qassem said,
“The resistance will not surrender its weapons while aggression continues, occupation persists, and we will fight it if necessary to confront this American-Israeli project no matter the cost,”
framing the disarmament demands as a threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty and security. He further accused the Lebanese government of
“delivering the country to an insatiable Israeli aggressor or an American tyrant with limitless greed”
and warned that the state would bear responsibility for any ensuing internal
conflict or destruction.
Government's Response and Political Crisis
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned Hezbollah’s warnings as
“unacceptable” and “veiled threats of civil war,” asserting that “no one in
Lebanon wants such a war” and insisted that the government's decisions remain
purely Lebanese, denying accusations of foreign influence. Salam and other
officials maintain that disarming Hezbollah is necessary to stabilize Lebanon,
reduce armed conflict risks, and meet international expectations, including
those of the United States.
The government’s move followed intense international
pressure and a desire to enforce a ceasefire after last year's 14-month
Israel-Hezbollah war, which ended with a US-brokered truce. Lebanon’s cabinet
approved a phased disarmament plan that tasks the Lebanese army with recovering
weapons in several stages covering southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa
Valley between September and December 2025.
Sources close to Hezbollah have warned that if forced to
disarm, the militia’s supporters could rise in mass street protests,
potentially provoking a confrontation with the Lebanese army and sparking
internal instability.
Historical Context and Hezbollah’s Political Survival
Hezbollah’s rejection of disarmament echoes Beirut’s painful history. The militia’s warnings of civil war recall Lebanon’s devastating civil conflict from 1975 to 1990, which caused over 100,000 deaths. Analysts like Merin Abbass from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation note that Hezbollah’s weapons serve not only defense purposes but underpin its political survival.
“As nobody knows how many weapons the militia still has, this is their last and only trump card,” Abbass said.
The group’s arsenal and military strength have significantly
declined since last year’s war, which killed key leaders, including Hezbollah’s
longstanding chief Hassan Nasrallah, and severely damaged its command
structure. Despite setbacks, Hezbollah insists it must retain arms until Israel
ceases attacks and withdraws from Lebanese lands, maintaining its self-declared
role as Lebanon’s defender.
Military and Regional Dimensions
The Lebanese army faces the difficult challenge of
implementing the disarmament without igniting civil strife. Military officials
express concern about preserving civil peace amid political divisions,
especially since Hezbollah’s allied Shia ministers have withdrawn from
government, reducing consensus. Hezbollah urges dialogue on a national defence
strategy but refuses disarmament without Israeli withdrawal and security
guarantees.
Internationally, the disarmament plan’s success also depends
on Israel’s compliance with ceasefire terms. The United States has linked
support for Lebanon to progress on the disarmament. Israeli military presence
continues at vantage points inside Lebanon post-war and regularly confronts
Hezbollah forces.
Warnings of Unrest and Possible Conflict
Hezbollah leaders have repeatedly warned that the group will fight to maintain its weapons and resist what they frame as an American-Israeli project to end their resistance. Naim Qassem emphasized that
“there will be no life in Lebanon”
if the government confronts Hezbollah over arms. The group
sees its weaponry as the last safeguard against Israeli aggression and rejects
scenarios that leave it unarmed while Israel remains present.
While Hezbollah spoke of the possibility of unrest, some leaders sought to clarify the rhetoric. Sources close to the militia said there was no intent to provoke civil war but aimed to warn that their community feels cornered. The group would rather “die armed than disarm” if pushed too far. Other political leaders downplayed the threat of civil war. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri stated,
“There is no fear of civil war and no threat to internal peace”.
Economic and Social Impact
Lebanon remains deeply affected by the consequences of last
year’s Israel-Hezbollah war. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at
$11 billion, with more than 4,000 dead and over a million displaced. The
ongoing political and military tensions hamper Lebanon’s recovery amid a
continuing economic crisis since 2019, complicating prospects for stability.
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun urged international donors
to support the Lebanese military’s enhanced role in national security post-war
and warned that failure to adopt the disarmament plan risked Lebanon losing the
attention and assistance of powerful backers like the US.
Lebanon stands at a critical juncture as the government
pushes forward with a US-backed plan to disarm Hezbollah, aiming to solidify
peace and sovereignty after a devastating war. Hezbollah has rejected these
demands outright and threatens confrontation, citing ongoing Israeli presence
and attacks as justification for retaining arms. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and
other officials await implementation, balancing international pressure and
domestic stability. Whether Lebanon can navigate this conflict without
reverting to civil war remains uncertain amid entrenched political divisions
and deep historical wounds.