The war between Israel and Iran that erupted in June 2025 represents a dramatic escalation in a long-standing and multifaceted rivalry grounded in geopolitical, ideological, and security concerns. Historically, Israel and Iran have been adversaries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which replaced a pro-Western monarchy with an Islamist regime vehemently opposing Israel’s existence and openly supporting Palestinian and regional groups hostile to Israel. The conflict is driven by Iran’s pursuit of regional dominance, its nuclear program, and Israel’s perception of Iran as an existential threat. Tensions intensified in the years leading to 2025 as Iran advanced nuclear enrichment efforts, with Israeli intelligence warning of Iran’s plans to massively expand its ballistic missile arsenal—potentially reaching around 9,000 missiles capable of striking Israel. Iran’s support for proxy militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, considered terrorist organizations by Israel, further complicated security dynamics. Israel, alarmed by this growing threat matrix amid the weakening of some Iranian proxies following conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, seized what it saw as a strategic window of opportunity in June 2025 to launch a surprise and comprehensive military campaign directly targeting Iran’s nuclear, military, and strategic infrastructure. This marked a shift from proxy skirmishes to direct confrontation.
The course of the 2025 war: Military operations and strategic developments
The conflict, often referred to as the Twelve-Day War, began on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched a series of precise airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and key military sites under the codename Operation Rising Lion. Israeli forces targeted nuclear scientists, military commanders, air defenses, and infrastructure, aiming to cripple Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons and degrade its military capabilities. Throughout the war, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes, assassinating prominent Iranian figures and damaging crucial installations. Iran retaliated with massive waves of ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israeli cities and military bases, firing more than 550 missiles and over 1,000 suicide drones. Iran's proxy group in Yemen, the Houthis, also launched missile attacks against Israel, adding an adjunct front. The United States entered the conflict militarily on Israel’s behalf through Operation Midnight Hammer, executing extensive airstrikes including the largest B-2 bomber campaign in history against Iranian nuclear sites, signaling a significant escalation and direct US involvement in the war. Despite heavy fighting, the well-coordinated military operations from Israel and the US, coupled with degradation of Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, limited Iran's ability to open multiple active fronts. After intense fighting and international mediation efforts, including negotiations brokered by Qatar, a ceasefire was agreed upon on June 24, 2025, halting open hostilities but leaving many uncertainties unresolved.
The global fear of escalation and the notion of world war 3
The clash between Israel and Iran has caused widespread alarm given the potential for regional destabilization to spiral into a far larger conflict that some have described as a possible catalyst for World War 3. Both countries are key players in a volatile region rich in strategic resources and religious significance. Israel’s decisive strike on Iran—backed militarily by the US—raised fears among global powers that the confrontation might drag in coalition allies, drawing in countries like Russia, China, and regional actors aligned with either side. The proliferation of ballistic missiles, drone warfare, and cyberattacks introduced modern warfare dimensions with potential to escalate uncontrollably. Moreover, Iran’s alliance with multiple non-state actors spread across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen posed risks of proxy warfare expanding beyond direct Israel-Iran engagements. Despite no global war erupting, the conflict underscored how easily localized disputes could escalate under complex geopolitical fault lines involving sectarianism, competing alliances, and great power interests. International actors scrambled to manage escalation risks, with diplomatic channels attempting to broker ceasefires and prevent wider conflagration.
Can Israel defeat Iran in a war? Assessing military capabilities
Assessing whether Israel can defeat Iran in a war involves multiple factors including military capabilities, geography, international alliances, and strategic objectives. Israel possesses one of the most advanced and well-equipped defense forces globally, with cutting-edge air superiority, missile defense systems like the Iron Dome, and elite intelligence operations. Israel’s rapid airstrikes in June 2025 caused significant damage to Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, demonstrating a potent offensive capability. However, Iran’s size, population, and asymmetric warfare strategies involving proxy militias present formidable challenges. Iran’s missile arsenal thousands strong can inflict damage on Israeli cities and infrastructure, creating a protracted conflict scenario. Geographically, Iran’s vast territory makes a full invasion highly complex and costly. Moreover, the risk of Iranian retaliatory attacks against civilian targets in Israel and the potential for the conflict to widen through proxies impose limits on Israel’s operational freedom. Israeli strategists have portrayed the 2025 war as a surgical campaign aimed primarily at halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions rather than conquering Iranian territory. Therefore, while Israel can significantly weaken Iran militarily and strategically, a decisive total victory over Iran in conventional terms remains uncertain and dependent on political considerations and broader regional dynamics.
War between Israel and Iran: Who would win?
The question of who would win a war between Israel and Iran involves a multifaceted analysis of military capabilities, strategic doctrines, geopolitical contexts, and the nature of modern warfare, which make any straightforward answer elusive. While Israel has a significant technological and tactical edge in conventional warfare, Iran’s larger manpower, missile arsenals, proxy networks, and geographic depth present formidable challenges that complicate prospects for a decisive victory.
Israel’s military advantage is primarily rooted in its advanced technology, intelligence capabilities, and professional armed forces. As of 2025, Israel operates a highly modern air force with approximately 340 combat aircraft, including 39 U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighters that can penetrate radar defenses undetected. This superiority in aerial warfare enables Israel to launch precise, rapid airstrikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and leadership figures as demonstrated in the 2025 campaign termed Operation Rising Lion. Israel also boasts sophisticated multilayered air defense systems such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems, which have proven effective intercepting missiles and drones launched from Iran or its proxies. Furthermore, Israel maintains extensive cyber warfare capabilities and advanced battlefield surveillance integrating artificial intelligence and satellite reconnaissance, further increasing its operational effectiveness. Its military personnel number around 170,000 active-duty troops supported by a sizable reserve force of about 465,000 trained individuals, ensuring rapid mobilization if a prolonged conflict arises.
However, Iran’s military strength cannot be underestimated. Although its air force of about 350 aircraft largely consists of older Russian-supplied jets with limited upgrades due to sanctions, Iran compensates with one of the largest missile arsenals in the region, including over a dozen ballistic missile types capable of striking targets across Israel and beyond. Iran’s missile capabilities are central to its asymmetric deterrence strategy, demonstrated in sustained missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, military bases, and infrastructure during the 2025 conflict. Iran’s standing army and Revolutionary Guards total approximately 600,000 active personnel, supplemented by 350,000 reservists, significantly outnumber Israel’s active forces. Iran’s strength heavily relies on a dense network of proxy militias and allied non-state actors across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. These proxies multiply Iran’s ability to open multiple fronts and conduct distributed attacks, making it challenging for Israel to contain the conflict geographically. Iranian forces and proxies have also practiced guerrilla and missile warfare, capable of targeting civilian populations and military assets alike, which can degrade Israeli defensive capacity over time.
Geographical and logistical factors favor Iran’s defense and prolong conflict potential. Iran’s vast territory offers depth that hampers Israel’s ability to achieve a ground invasion or sustained occupation. Israeli forces would face significant challenges in projecting power deep into Iranian mainland beyond air and limited special operations. Meanwhile, Iran can strike from a distance and leverage regional alliances to exert pressure indirectly. The 2025 war demonstrated that while Israel could disable key Iranian installations and leadership through airstrikes and intelligence operations, Iran’s retaliatory missile barrages and proxy attacks caused extensive disruption within Israel, preventing a swift conclusive victory.
The question of who would “win” thus transcends pure military capacity. Modern warfare between these two states is characterized by attrition, proxy conflicts, cyber and information warfare, and international political dynamics. The involvement or restraint of global powers such as the United States, Russia, China, and European states profoundly influences conflict escalation or resolution. Both countries have shown resilience and willingness to absorb losses while continuing offensive or defensive operations, reflecting a war of endurance and political will.
Diplomatically, Israel’s objective has often been to degrade or delay Iran’s nuclear capabilities rather than territorial conquest, reflecting a strategic calculus focused on existential threat prevention. Iran’s strategy includes deterring Israeli aggression via missile strikes and proxy conflicts while avoiding direct conventional defeat. Therefore, military engagements risk becoming prolonged stalemates with high humanitarian costs rather than decisive wars with clear winners.
Analysts caution that a prolonged war risks devastating consequences across the region, including civilian casualties, refugee flows, economic disruptions, and the potential for escalation into regional or even global confrontation. The involvement of multiple actors with competing interests increases unpredictability and the risk of wider conflict, elements sometimes described under the specter of a "World War 3" scenario. However, current diplomatic efforts and conflict de-escalation attempts aim to prevent such escalation.
While Israel’s technological sophistication, air power dominance, and intelligence capabilities provide it with significant advantages in a direct confrontation, Iran’s larger manpower, missile force, asymmetric tactics, and proxy networks create a complex battlefield that favors endurance and indirect strategies. Neither side is likely to achieve a swift, decisive military victory in a full-scale war, and the ultimate outcome would depend heavily on diplomatic developments, international interventions, political endurance, and the capacity to absorb and manage ongoing conflict costs. The notion of a “winner” in a war between Israel and Iran, therefore, remains ambiguous and contingent on a combination of military, political, and humanitarian factors rather than battlefield dominance alone.