Summary
- Pro-Palestine candidates threaten UK top ministers'
seats.
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting likely faces a major
battle.
- Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is also at risk.
- Starmer’s Palestinian state recognition may not save
seats.
- Pollsters warn of shifting Muslim voter support against Labour.
The Independent said on Saturday that despite
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's decision to perhaps recognize a Palestinian
state, prominent figures including Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Health
Secretary Wes Streeting will probably have to fight hard to save their seats.
Jonathan Ashworth, a crucial part of Starmer's
team, was ousted by a pro-Palestine candidate in the most recent election in
2024. With a slim majority of 528, Streeting kept his seat, compared to 5,198
in 2019.
According to pollsters, the government may face significant embarrassment at the next election as a result of
growing popular dissatisfaction with Britain's response to the Gaza war.
By emphasizing the Gaza issue, former Labour
leader and independent MP Jeremy Corbyn has announced a new party that may also
steal some votes from the government.
The nation's leading pollster, John Curtice,
told The Independent that voters "may not be sufficient" with
Starmer's promise to recognize a Palestinian state in September if Israel does
not fulfill certain requirements.
In addition to Streeting and Mahmood, other
ministers and MPs may possibly lose their seats in the upcoming election if
resentment over Gaza keeps rising.
According to Curtice, Starmer "lost
out" on votes in his own constituency last year due to worries about Gaza.
The prime minister's majority, however, is far more than that of several of his cabinet members.
“Here is somebody (Starmer) who spent a great deal of time and effort trying to reconnect with the Jewish community, and now he’s finding himself having to spend a great deal of effort trying to reconnect with the Muslim community. It is very difficult to keep himself on board with both groups at the moment,”
Curtice said.
Last week, when he introduced his party, Corbyn
promised that its members will vigorously advocate for Palestine and Britain's
stance on Israel's conflict in Gaza.
Events in Gaza and the government's approach to the war, according to Luke Tryl of the polling firm More in Common, have exposed "deeper" issues inside the ruling Labour Party.
“When we have done focus groups with voters in Muslim areas, particularly some of those who backed or were thinking about backing pro-Gaza independent candidates, I compared it to speaking to voters in the red wall after Brexit,”
he said.
“In the sense that Brexit was the thing which caused the split, but it actually brought to the fore much deeper resentments — that they have been taken from granted, ignored, left behind by Labour … I think we’re going to see exactly the same thing with Muslim voters.”
How might Labour’s stance on Palestinian recognition influence voter behavior?
Many Muslim voters, traditionally supportive of
Labour, are reconsidering their allegiance due to perceptions that Labour’s
stance on Palestine and Gaza has been inadequate or too pro-Israel. Polls
indicate a strong openness among Muslim voters (comprising nearly 6% of the UK
electorate) to support independent pro-Palestine candidates or alternative
parties like the Greens if Labour is seen as unresponsive to their concerns
about Palestine.
For a significant share of Muslim voters, the
Israel-Palestine conflict ranks among the top election issues influencing their
vote—44% name Gaza as a top-five concern, and 21% consider it the single most
important issue.
Across the wider electorate, 12% include the
conflict among their main concerns, with many showing willingness to back
candidates specifically focusing on Palestine.