New official data shows UK net migration peaked higher than
earlier estimates but has since dropped sharply, driven by increased departures
of British nationals.
In discrepancy to the previous estimate of 906,000 for the
time ending June 2023, bettered methodologies from the Office for National
Statistics( ONS) indicate that net migration reached a advanced and slightly
earlier peak of 944,000 in the time ending March 2023.
Following this, net migration in the time ending December
2024 is now anticipated to be 345,000, a steeper decline than first
reported.
The ONS's improved method of calculating British nationals'
immigration and emigration is the primary cause of the data' change.
After an early estimate of 77,000, it is currently estimated
that 257,000 Britons left the UK in the year ending December 2024.
Meanwhile, the number of British immigrants to the UK is
reported to have increased from 60,000 to 143,000 over this time.
For several years, net migration of British nationals has
been negative, meaning that more of this group departs than comes in. However,
the number is significantly higher than first thought, at minus 114,000 in 2024
as opposed to an early estimate of minus 17,000.
The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which was based on
a very small sample size and had been "stretched beyond its original
purpose" of tracking travel and tourism, was the basis for earlier
estimates of British national migration, according to the ONS.
Additionally, information gathered
as part of the 2021 census revealed that the survey was underestimating the
number of British nationals migrating.
For the first time, the ONS has estimated whether UK
citizens have recently immigrated or emigrated using national insurance data
from the Department for Work and Pensions.
After the Census 2021 revealed that the International
Passenger Survey was underestimating the number of British citizens living
overseas, Mary Gregory, director of population statistics at the ONS, stated
that the independent statistics organization has been investigating several
data sources to revise its projections.
“Understanding the long-term international migration patterns of British nationals has been, and always will be, challenging due to the sheer number of British people crossing the border on a daily basis,”
she said.
Since 251,000 in the time ending in June 2021, the net
migration protuberance of 345,000 for the time ending in December 2024 is the
smallest for any 12- month period.
The variations have been made in advance of the November 27
release of the most recent long- term transnational migration data for the time
ending in June 2025.
How will revised migration numbers affect UK population projections?
Net migration has been the primary motorist of population
growth, counting for 65 of the UK's population increase between 2004 and 2023.
The overall population growth in recent times would have been negative without
migration.
The Office for National Statistics( ONS) now projects the
UK's population could grow by 6.4 million from 2022 to 2037, largely powered by
net migration. former protrusions undervalued net migration and therefore
population growth.
The scale of these migration flows profoundly affects
social, profitable, and policy planning across casing, health, education, and
labor markets.Revised advanced net migration estimates mean UK population
protrusions show lesser growth and a larger future population, emphasizing
migration's critical part in shaping demographic trends and the frugality.