Wales’ first minister says she is determined to keep Welsh Labour in power, despite warnings the party could slip to third place in May’s elections.
According to polls, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru may defeat Eluned Morgan's party in the next Senate elections, ending Labour's 100-year rule in Wales.
Morgan said:
“Of course I feel the pressure but I’m also determined to turn this round. We’re the most successful democratic political party on the planet. It’s a long winning streak. We’re up for the fight.”
After Vaughan Gething resigned in the summer of 2024 due to a donations controversy, Morgan became Labour's first female head of state in the United Kingdom.
Although her party lost the high-profile Caerphilly byelection in the fall, polls indicate that the people of Wales may be ready for change, despite her charisma and energy.
Morgan said:
“Caerphilly was difficult but I’m keen to make sure people recognise that what you have in me is a leader who is determined to turn a page.”
She drew attention to the departure of Labour Senedd grandees who have dominated Welsh politics since devolution in 1999, including former first minister Mark Drakeford and social justice secretary Jane Hutt.
Morgan emphasized the establishment of two AI growth zones in south Wales and a plan to construct a first-of-its-kind nuclear power plant on Anglesey (Ynys Môn) in north Wales, which was announced in November.
The first minister claimed that Plaid's aspiration for an independent Wales would be a distraction if he were to lead the next Welsh government.
"What we'll get is a never-ending battle with the UK government and a never-ending discussion about the constitution."
Morgan claimed that Reform "threw the kitchen sink" at the Caerphilly byelection and failed.
“There is a percentage of people who will buy into their negativity, their division-making, their hatred. What I’m interested in doing is competing on a positive pitch. I want to look to the future and I’m not interested in chasing them down an immigration agenda.
We have a situation in Wales, particularly in the area I represent [mid and west Wales], where 48% of doctors and dentists have been trained overseas. We are dependent on these people.”
She claimed that under Reform, public services would be in jeopardy and businesses would be less inclined to invest in Wales.
Morgan voiced his dissatisfaction with UK Labour in the summer, urging Keir Starmer to reconsider her welfare plans and accusing her of "tacking to the left."
She expressed her satisfaction with the elimination of the two-child benefit cap and the modifications made to the winter fuel allowance.
Morgan added that when it came to initiatives like free school breakfasts, UK Labour was imitating the Welsh party.
“We’ve been doing that for 21 years. And they want to introduce a youth guarantee. Again, 60,000 young people in Wales have already benefited from our youth guarantee. What’s great is, they’re following us. We’ve set the pace, I think, for the UK government. It’s a shame they don’t give us as much credit for the creativity we’ve shown in the past.”
Morgan stated that it would be an "awful thing" for Wales if her party lost power, despite some Labour party members' private suggestions that it would be time for a period of opposition to give time and space for reinvention.
“I think that the things people rely on every day may not be there. Think about free prescriptions – something they’re not offering in England. That may go. It won’t go if Welsh Labour is in power.”
More than anything, she said Labour provided stability.
“Instability is very, very dangerous for the country at a time when the world is facing instability. You see the challenges people have with the cost of living crisis, climate change and flooding, Russia and the aggression happening there. All of those things create an environment of instability. I think that what we can offer is stability in an age of instability.”
How could changing to proportional representation affect Welsh Labour?
The shift to completely commensurable representation( PR) using the D’Hondt system for the 2026 Senedd election will probably end Welsh Labour's unchallenged dominance by enabling lower parties like Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to gain seats commensurable to bounce share, potentially relegating Labour to third place with around 20- 30 seats out of 96.
Under the new system of 16 six- member constituencies, Labour's literal first- history- the- post advantage evaporates; pates showing Plaid at 33 and Reform at 30 versus Labour's 10- 27 restate to fractured seat earnings for contenders, forcing coalitions and lacing Labour's 27- time hold on power.
Labour faces name fragmentation from Reform's right- sect swell and Plaid's nationalism, risking no outright maturity despite expanded Senedd size; First Minister Eluned Morgan eyes Plaid coalitions but rules out Reform, heightening internal renewal pressures amid by- election losses.