Egypt has condemned Ethiopia’s recent full operation of the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), citing threats to its vital Nile water
supply, and has activated emergency water management measures. Despite years of
stalled negotiations and international mediation attempts, Ethiopia inaugurated
the dam in September 2025, escalating regional tensions and prompting urgent
calls for renewed dialogue.
Egypt’s Condemnation and Emergency Response to GERD Operations
Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
officially condemned Ethiopia’s unilateral operation of the GERD, describing it
as a serious threat to the Nile’s downstream flow, essential to Egypt’s water
security. As reported by Von Gov Nigeria, Egypt accuses Ethiopia of violating
prior agreements by advancing dam operations without a binding and
comprehensive deal. The Egyptian government declared the activation of
emergency protocols to monitor the Nile’s water levels closely, prepare
relevant agencies for potential shortages, and safeguard national water
interests.
The Ministry emphasised that the Nile constitutes over 90%
of Egypt's fresh water supply, making any disruption critical for agriculture,
drinking water, and general livelihoods. Egypt’s statement called on Ethiopia
to halt further unilateral actions and return to cooperative negotiations to
ensure equitable water sharing.
Historical Background: The GERD Dispute
The GERD project was initiated by Ethiopia in 2011, with the
goal of developing Africa’s largest hydropower dam on the Blue Nile,
strategically located near the Sudanese border. The project was envisioned as a
key driver for Ethiopia’s energy needs and economic development. However, the
dam quickly sparked regional tensions, particularly with downstream countries
Sudan and Egypt.
Egypt has expressed profound concerns that filling and
operating the dam without coordinated agreements could severely reduce Nile
water flows during dry periods, jeopardising its agricultural outputs and
drinking water. Sudan has also voiced worries over dam safety and disruption of
water flows, seeking binding operational guarantees alongside Egypt.
Negotiations among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have been
ongoing for over a decade, intermittently mediated by entities like the African
Union, the United States, and the United Nations. However, these talks
repeatedly stalled, chiefly over disagreements about the dam’s filling schedule
and management during droughts. Ethiopia insists on its sovereign right to fill
and operate the dam independently, while Egypt and Sudan demand legally binding
agreements to prevent harm.
Key Developments in 2025 and Ethiopia’s Dam Inauguration
The GERD was completed and officially inaugurated by
Ethiopian authorities in July and September 2025, respectively, despite the
absence of a signed trilateral agreement. According to the timeline reported by
the news agency Anadolu Agency, the construction was declared finished in July
2025, with all turbines nearing readiness for operation.
The full operation and inauguration of GERD marked a new
escalation in the dispute. Egypt denounced the move as a breach of
international water laws and escalated diplomatic efforts, appealing to the
United Nations Security Council for intervention. Sudan maintained its calls
for caution and negotiation, urging Ethiopia to avoid unilateral steps that
could endanger regional stability.
Multiple media sources including BBC and Al Jazeera
highlighted the risk of increasing regional instability as tensions mount
without diplomatic breakthrough. Egypt began intensifying its rhetoric, framing
the dam’s operation as an existential threat to national water security.
Diplomatic and Mediation Efforts Fall Short
Efforts to broker a comprehensive agreement have seen little
success in recent years. Key issues remain: the pace at which Ethiopia fills
the reservoir and the guarantees of water release during droughts. Egypt and
Sudan emphasize a binding agreement with enforceable provisions, while Ethiopia
views attempts to restrict its dam operation as infringements on sovereignty.
Trilateral talks have taken place under African Union
auspices and with the involvement of the US and UN, but no final accord has
been reached. As reported by Zehabesha and other outlets, stalemate persists
with Ethiopia refusing to halt filling or modify operations, insisting on its
developmental rights.
International actors continue to urge cooperation and calm,
warning of potential escalation into broader conflict if the dispute remains
unresolved. The United States, for instance, reaffirmed its support for Egypt’s
water security and a peaceful resolution during meetings between President Joe
Biden and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in previous years.
Potential Paths for Cooperation and Water Management
While the current climate is tense, experts and analysts
stress that collaborative and science-based water management offers the best
chance of long-term stability. Solutions proposed include:
- Transparent
sharing of hydrological data among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
- Establishment
of a permanent joint water management body with legal authority.
- Use
of independent panels to monitor dam operations and river health.
- Agreements
on flexible dam-filling schedules to accommodate drought conditions.
- “Energy-for-water”
deals allowing Ethiopia to sell surplus electricity to neighbor countries
in exchange for flexible reservoir management.
These approaches aim to balance Ethiopia’s developmental
needs with the water security concerns of Egypt and Sudan, fostering peace and
mutual benefit in the Nile Basin.
Regional and International Responses
The activation of emergency measures by Egypt has drawn
widespread regional and international attention. Many countries and
organizations have called for calm and intensified dialogue. The United Arab
Emirates has urged renewed trilateral meetings. At the same time, military
exercises involving Egypt and Sudan have hinted at growing unease about the
region’s future.
The United Nations Security Council has addressed the
dispute on several occasions but has yet to devise enforceable measures.
African Union-led processes remain central but are hindered by longstanding
mistrust.
As the GERD enters full operational status, its impact on
Nile hydrology and regional relations will be closely watched globally. The
Nile River remains indispensable to over 250 million people across several
countries, heightening the necessity of an equitable and sustainable solution.
The latest phase in the GERD dispute marks one of the most
critical junctures in the decade-long disagreement. Egypt’s condemnation and
activation of emergency water management protocols reflect the seriousness with
which it views the risks from Ethiopia’s dam operations. Ethiopia’s move to
inaugurate and fully operate the GERD reinforces its commitment to the project
as a means to national development.
With trilateral talks stalled and the risk of regional instability growing, the international community and the Nile Basin countries face the urgent challenge of resuming effective dialogue and forging agreements that respect the rights and needs of all parties involved.