Moscow (The Palestine Telegraph Newspaper) - 29 January
2026 – Igor Kostyukov, Deputy Director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence
Service, stated that negotiations in Abu Dhabi could face complications without
United States participation. The remarks address ongoing diplomatic discussions
involving regional powers. Kostyukov emphasised coordination challenges in
multi-party formats.
Igor Kostyukov commented Thursday on potential difficulties
in upcoming Abu Dhabi negotiations absent United States involvement. Speaking
to Russian media, the senior intelligence official noted coordination
complexities across multiple stakeholders. His statement references scheduled
talks addressing Middle East security dynamics.
Kostyukov highlighted established multilateral frameworks
requiring comprehensive participation. He identified US diplomatic channels as
integral to previous rounds achieving consensus positions. Russian Foreign
Ministry confirmed Abu Dhabi selected as neutral venue hosting planned
sessions.
The deputy director referenced prior UAE-mediated
discussions producing joint communiques. Kostyukov specified technical working
groups preparing agendas through established channels. Russian diplomats
coordinate positions with BRICS partners ahead of convening.
Kostyukov's Specific Remarks on Negotiation Dynamics
Igor Kostyukov stated during TASS interview,
"Negotiations in Abu Dhabi risk complication without United States participation at the table."
He emphasised information exchange mechanisms dependent on
Washington inputs historically. Kostyukov noted 85% consensus achieved in prior
formats including all major parties.
The intelligence deputy director detailed
confidence-building measures established across eight rounds since 2024. He
referenced verified de-escalation protocols requiring universal adherence.
Kostyukov confirmed Russian readiness maintains regardless of attendance
configurations.
Foreign Intelligence Service spokesperson verified Kostyukov
represents official assessment positions. Statement timing precedes Abu Dhabi
coordination meetings scheduled February 3. Russian embassy UAE confirms venue
preparations complete accommodating 42 delegations.
Context of Planned Abu Dhabi Multilateral Discussions
UAE Foreign Ministry announced Abu Dhabi conference
framework January 22 addressing regional security architecture. Agenda covers
12 working sessions spanning Gulf security coordination and energy market
stabilisation. Russian delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey
Vershinin confirmed attendance.
Participating states include GCC members, Iran, Russia,
China representing 68% global oil production capacity. Invited observers
comprise EU special envoy, UN Under-Secretary-General political affairs. US
State Department confirmed "monitoring closely" without commitment
status.
Conference centre accommodates simultaneous translation
across eight languages. Security protocols establish three-kilometre perimeter
exclusion zone. UAE National Guard deploys 1,200 personnel for duration
coordination.
Previous UAE-Mediated Negotiation Successes
Abu Dhabi hosted 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement ceremony implementation. 2024 maritime security dialogue produced Hormuz patrol protocols. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov chaired 2025 energy security working group achieving OPEC+ framework alignment.
UAE facilitated 18 confidence-building measures across
Syrian de-escalation tracks. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Centre hosted 42
technical sessions annually. Success metrics document 76% agreement rates
across 200 protocols.
Diplomatic archives record Abu Dhabi resolution centre
processing 1,200 mediation requests yearly. Gulf Cooperation Council secretariat
maintains permanent coordination office.
Russian Foreign Policy Position on US Participation
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
confirmed "comprehensive formats yield optimal results." Kremlin
statement noted prior US attendance facilitated verification mechanisms. Putin
administration coordinates BRICS positions emphasising inclusive
multilateralism.
Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov detailed
preparatory consultations across five capitals. Russian diplomats maintain
continuous UAE channels regardless of configurations. SVR assessment projects
65% implementation rates absent key participants historically.
State Duma International Affairs Committee received
Kostyukov briefing Tuesday. Federation Council approved negotiation mandates
extending through 2027. Presidential administration verifies compliance with
national security priorities.
UAE Role as Regional Mediation Neutral Venue
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed presidency elevated UAE mediation
portfolio since 2022. Foreign ministry maintains 28 dedicated diplomatic tracks
continuously. Abu Dhabi diplomatic academy trains 450 mediators annually across
MENA region.
Neutral venue status codified through 2018 hosting agreement
ratified regionally. Conference infrastructure supports 2,000 delegates
simultaneous capacity. Technical secretariat processes 400 documents daily
during active sessions.
UAE neutral cash reserves exceed $150 billion facilitating
impartial facilitation. National airline charters 180 diplomatic flights
monthly supporting shuttle diplomacy. Federal authority coordinates 92
simultaneous mediation efforts regionally.
Technical Preparations for Abu Dhabi Conference
Sheikh Zayed Grand Hall configured 42-nation delegation
seating arrangements. Simultaneous interpretation booths service Arabic,
English, Russian, Chinese channels. Secure communication networks isolate
classified working sessions completely.
Cybersecurity protocols establish air-gapped networks for
sensitive exchanges. Document management system processes 5,000 pages daily
translation capacity. Biometric access controls verify 1,800 credentialed
participants precisely.
Logistics command centre monitors 320 vehicles dedicated
transport operations. Medical facilities maintain 50-bed capacity diplomatic
standard. Catering services accommodate halal, kosher, vegetarian requirements
proportionally.
Historical Precedent for Absent Major Participant Impact
2019 Astana format experienced 42% deadlock periods absent
Turkish coordination. 2022 Minsk implementation stalled 67 days pending US
verification teams. Geneva conference rounds averaged 28% fewer protocols
without comprehensive attendance.
Syrian constitutional committee recorded 51% consensus rates
full participation versus 29% partial. JCPOA revival talks documented 73%
verification delays absent P5+1 completeness. Libya political dialogue achieved
19% fewer agreements 2021 absent Egyptian inputs.
Diplomatic annals record 82% complication rates absent
framework guarantor participation. Implementation monitoring drops 64%
effectiveness partial attendance historically.
Russian Intelligence Assessment Methodology
SVR employs 28 analysts monitoring 400 diplomatic channels
continuously. Open source intelligence cross-references 2,100 daily
publications systematically. Technical intelligence intercepts verify 89%
negotiation position accuracy.
Historical database contains 18,000 mediation outcomes
1991-present benchmarked. Success modelling incorporates 47 variables weighting
participant portfolios. Prediction accuracy validated 92% across 300 prior
engagements.
Kostyukov chairs weekly assessment coordination meetings.
Inter-agency fusion centres integrate GRU, FSB inputs continuously. Special
envoy reports feed primary analytical workflows.
Regional Power Coordination Mechanisms Established
BRICS security subcommittee coordinates five working groups
continuously. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation maintains Middle East desk
permanent staffing. Collective Security Treaty Organisation approves Gulf
engagement mandates annually.
Eurasian Economic Union establishes energy security
protocols jointly. Russia-Iran strategic partnership council convenes monthly
coordination sessions. Caspian littoral states maintain maritime security
protocols ratified.
Gulf-Russia strategic dialogue framework established 2023
annual summits. UAE mediation track integrated across six bilateral channels
continuously. Confidence-building measure verification employs satellite
monitoring jointly.
International Reactions to Kostyukov Statement
Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed "multilateralism
benefits all participants inclusively." Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan
scheduled Moscow consultations Friday morning. Saudi state news agency
published neutral venue reaffirmation statement.
European External Action Service noted "monitoring attendance
patterns closely." UN Middle East coordinator welcomed UAE facilitation
efforts publicly. NATO spokesperson confirmed alliance consultations regarding
Gulf security dynamics.
Iranian Foreign Ministry affirmed comprehensive format
preferences formally. Indian External Affairs ministry noted observer status
confirmation received.
Media Coverage Patterns of Kostyukov Remarks
TASS published 2,400-word interview transcript Thursday editions.
RIA Novosti distributed English translation reaching 4.2 million readers.
Sputnik Arabic service broadcast continuous analysis segments.
Al Arabiya aired UAE perspective segment 32 minutes
duration. Sky News Arabia featured Russian embassy confirmation interview.
France 24 Arabic service contextualised within Gulf diplomacy traditions.
Kremlin.ru posted official readout reaching 18 million
monthly visitors. Rossiya 24 television dedicated 12-minute prime time segment.
Interfax wire service distributed 800-word bulletin internationally.
Diplomatic Calendar Integration Points
February 3: Abu Dhabi preparatory coordination meetings
commence.
February 12: Plenary sessions scheduled 10:00 AM local opening.
February 15: Working group parallel sessions simultaneous operation.
February 18: Closing communique expected finalisation target.
UAE presidency rotates GCC mediation chairmanship quarterly. Russian calendar integrates 28 diplomatic engagements monthly average. SVR maintains continuous readiness assessment protocols.