Washington (The Palestine Telegraph Newspaper) February 04, 2026 – Ongoing Middle East conflicts have prompted shifts in global political alignments involving major powers. Key developments include US policy adjustments under President Trump, European diplomatic initiatives, and energy market fluctuations. International responses encompass security pacts, aid packages, and multilateral forums addressing regional stability.
The Middle East remains a central arena for global geopolitics, with conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen affecting diplomatic relations worldwide. The Israel-Hamas war, now in its third year, has drawn interventions from the US, EU, and Arab states. Oil prices spiked 15% in January 2026 following Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.
NATO members increased military aid to Israel by €2 billion collectively in 2025. Russia and China expanded ties with Iran amid sanctions relief talks. G7 summits prioritised countering Iranian influence through naval deployments in the eastern Mediterranean.
Key Middle East Conflicts Driving Global Shifts
The Gaza conflict originated from the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks killing 1,200 Israelis, followed by Israeli operations resulting in over 45,000 Palestinian deaths per Gaza Health Ministry data. Ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt stalled repeatedly through 2025. Hezbollah-Israel border clashes displaced 60,000 Lebanese since October 2024.
Yemen's Houthis targeted 75 commercial vessels in the Red Sea by December 2025, prompting Operation Prosperity Guardian led by the US and UK. Syria's post-Assad transition saw Turkish-backed forces control Aleppo, altering migration flows to Europe. Iran's proxy network activations strained Gulf Cooperation Council defences.
These events triggered US carrier strike group deployments, with the USS Abraham Lincoln stationed in the Arabian Sea. President Trump ordered 5,000 additional troops to the region in January 2026. European nations evacuated 20,000 citizens from Lebanon amid escalation fears.
US Foreign Policy Responses to Regional Dynamics
President Donald Trump's January 2025 inauguration marked a return to "maximum pressure" on Iran, including secondary sanctions on Chinese firms buying Persian Gulf oil. The US approved $20 billion in arms sales to Israel and $8 billion to Saudi Arabia. Trump hosted Netanyahu in Washington, pledging unwavering support against Hamas and Hezbollah.
Vice President JD Vance visited Riyadh, securing a $600 billion Saudi investment pledge in US energy projects. The Abraham Accords expanded with Kosovo and Micronesia normalising ties with Israel. US vetoed three UN Security Council resolutions critical of Israel in 2025.
Domestic politics reflected divisions, with 48% of Americans supporting Israel's Gaza operations per Gallup polls. Congressional aid packages totalled $18 billion since October 2023.
European Union Diplomatic Manoeuvres and Divisions
Germany maintained its opposition to unilateral Palestinian state recognition, as stated by Chancellor Friedrich Merz in December 2025. France and Spain pushed EU recognition efforts, gaining support from Ireland and Norway. The EU allocated €1.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Gaza and Lebanon in 2026 budgets.
Brussels imposed sanctions on 12 Israeli West Bank settlers for violence. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for immediate ceasefire in Commons debates. European energy imports from Qatar rose 25% to offset Russian gas cuts.
NATO's Madrid Summit extended Mediterranean partnerships to include UAE and Bahrain. EU naval mission Aspides protected 400 ships in the Red Sea by February 2026.
Russia's Strategic Gains in Middle East Turbulence
Russia deepened military cooperation with Iran, supplying S-400 systems and Su-35 jets. President Putin mediated Syria talks, hosting Assad successors in Moscow. Russian Wagner remnants secured gold mines in Sudan, funding African operations.
Moscow abstained on UN votes condemning Houthi attacks, criticising US strikes. Rosneft expanded Iraqi oilfield contracts worth $10 billion. Russia's UN ambassador accused Washington of escalating tensions through arms flows.
BRICS summit in Kazan welcomed Saudi Arabia and UAE, coordinating oil production cuts that raised Brent crude to $95 per barrel.
China's Economic Diplomacy Amid Escalations
China brokered the Saudi-Iran détente in 2023, hosting Fatah-Hamas unity talks in 2025. Beijing invested $50 billion in UAE ports and Egyptian Suez Canal zones. President Xi Jinping proposed a five-point Gaza peace plan at the UN General Assembly.
Chinese peacekeepers deployed to UNIFIL in Lebanon, numbering 500 troops. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation inducted Iran as full member. China imported 1.8 million barrels daily from Iraq, insulating its economy from disruptions.
Energy Markets and Economic Ripples Worldwide
Middle East oil supply risks drove global inflation to 4.2% in OECD countries. OPEC+ maintained 2.2 million barrel daily cuts through Q1 2026. LNG spot prices doubled after Houthi disruptions rerouted 10% of tanker traffic.
India boosted Russian crude imports by 40%, while Japan stockpiled 240 days of reserves. EU passed the REPowerEU plan, accelerating renewables to 45% of energy mix by 2030.
Global shipping insurance premiums rose 300% for Red Sea transits.
Impact on Global Security Architectures
NATO invoked Article 4 consultations after Houthi missile threats to Europe. US-UK-Australia AUKUS pact extended maritime surveillance to Indian Ocean. Quad summits focused on countering Houthi drone technology from Iran.
UN Security Council deadlocked on Gaza resolutions, with 15 vetoes since 2023. G20 communiqués omitted Israel-Palestine mentions amid divisions.
Cyberattacks attributed to Iranian hackers targeted Saudi Aramco and US water utilities.
Migration Pressures and Refugee Crises
Over 1.9 million Palestinians displaced internally in Gaza per UNRWA. Lebanon hosted 1.5 million Syrian refugees amid Hezbollah fighting. Europe received 180,000 irregular Mediterranean arrivals in 2025, highest since 2016.
Cyprus airlifted 15,000 Lebanese to safety. Turkey sheltered 3.7 million Syrians, conditioning EU accession talks on burden-sharing.
UNHCR funding appeals reached $12 billion for Middle East operations.
Nuclear Proliferation Concerns and Arms Race
Iran enriched uranium to 60% purity, nearing weapons-grade per IAEA reports. Israel conducted airstrikes on suspected Syrian reactor sites. Saudi Arabia pursued civilian nuclear programme with US and French assistance.
US extended New START treaty with Russia amid Iranian advancements. NPT Review Conference collapsed over Middle East non-signatories.
International Organisations' Roles and Reforms
UN General Assembly granted Palestine enhanced rights in 2024. WHO declared Gaza humanitarian emergency, airlifting 500 tonnes of aid. World Bank estimated $90 billion Gaza reconstruction cost over decade.
IMF warned of 3% MENA GDP contraction from conflict spillovers. WTO dispute panels examined US steel tariffs linked to regional arms production.
Major Power Summits Addressing Instability
Davos 2026 featured Netanyahu and Abbas separately, with no joint session. Munich Security Conference planned Iran focus in February. ASEAN summits linked Red Sea security to South China Sea freedoms.
Quad leaders endorsed IMEC corridor bypassing Hormuz Strait.
Longstanding Alliances and New Partnerships
Abraham Accords normalised ties for UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan with Israel. I2U2 grouping advanced $5 billion in food parks. Negev Forum met five times since 2022.
China-Gulf investment forum pledged $30 billion in renewables.
Humanitarian Aid Coordination Efforts
US air-dropped 1,200 tonnes of meals to Gaza. EU funded 400 mobile clinics in West Bank. Red Cross accessed northern Gaza 12 times in January 2026.
OCHA reported 90% Gaza food insecurity rate.