Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for 11 November 2025 are marked by low anticipated voter turnout, widespread public mistrust, and political tension beneath a seemingly calm surface. Reports indicate a significant electoral boycott and lingering concerns over vote-buying, reflecting deep-rooted dissatisfaction with current political dynamics and the influence of Iran-affiliated groups.
Calm Surface Masks Political Tensions in Baghdad
Iraq is preparing to hold its seventh parliamentary
elections since the fall of Saddam Hussein, yet the electoral environment
remains fraught beneath a deceptive quiet. According to Hogr Chato, head of the
Shams Network for monitoring elections, voter engagement is weak, with most
political parties opting for paid media advertising over direct grassroots
campaigning New Arab, 2025-10-15. This subdued atmosphere belies the ongoing
power struggles and sharp political divisions simmering across the country.
Low Turnout Expected Amid Widespread Boycotts
A prominent feature of the current electoral landscape is
the historically low voter turnout predicted for the 2025 elections. The
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) and election monitors project participation
below 40 percent, a decline attributed chiefly to public frustration and an
influential boycott led by figures such as Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shia cleric and
Sadrist Movement leader.
With only 16 million eligible voters registered from an
electorate of approximately 23 million, expectations are for barely 6.6 million
to cast ballots, amounting to roughly 26 percent of eligible voters—as seen in
past elections (AGS Insights, 2025-05-22). This declining turnout mirrors
trends from the 2021 parliamentary and 2023 local elections, both of which saw
similar voter participation rates of about 41 percent.
Public Mistrust and Vote-Buying Concerns
A palpable mistrust in the political system compounds the
issue of low turnout. Iraqis are increasingly disillusioned with what many
perceive to be entrenched corruption and the misallocation of the country's oil
revenues, leaving large segments of society feeling excluded from political and
economic benefits.
Vote-buying allegations further cloud the electoral process,
with political parties accused of leveraging state resources and patronage
networks. Pro-Iranian groups, in particular, are noted for their systematic
placement of militia personnel and loyalists on the government payroll and
manipulating public sector jobs to secure votes.
Political Power Dynamics Reinforced by Election Outcomes
The most recent local elections in 2023 underscored the
dominance of Iran-aligned factions. The State of Law Coalition led by former
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki emerged victorious, particularly in Baghdad,
securing 35 seats with 567,000 votes, including 144,000 in the capital.
The Tasmeem Alliance,
under Basra Governor Asaad Al Eidani, also achieved a strong showing, winning
12 out of 24 seats in Basra despite opposition from rival factions within the
Coordination Framework, a broad Shia alliance.
This electoral success highlights the enduring influence of
established political players and the role of patronage systems. At the same
time, it exposes vulnerabilities to shifts, as internal fractures within these
alliances remain, particularly with calls to replace governors and provincial
council heads, potentially destabilizing regional power.
Generational Shifts and Emerging Political Movements
Despite the entrenched status quo, there is evidence of
evolving political orientations among Iraqi voters, especially within younger
generations. New political forces like the Emtidad Movement and the New
Generation Movement have made measurable gains, capturing a significant portion
of votes in prior elections, reflecting growing demands for change and
transparency.
However, their influence remains limited compared to
dominant Shia coalitions. The challenge for these emerging actors will be
translating their local successes into broader national impact in the November
elections and beyond.
Iraq’s Fragile Democratic Landscape and Regional Implications
The 2025 elections are critical for Iraq’s political future,
representing a moment to either perpetuate existing power structures or usher
in reformist agendas. The persistent influence of Iran-backed militias and
their political wings complicates the democratic process.
Moreover, external pressures, including the enduring
presence of US troops and regional rivalries, add layers of complexity to
Iraq’s electoral politics and post-election governance.
Final Reflections
As Iraq heads to the polls on 11 November, the election's
significance transcends mere seat counts. It is a referendum on political
legitimacy and popular trust in a state struggling with corruption,
sectarianism, and social fragmentation. Observers will closely watch voter
turnout as an indicator of public sentiment, while political alliances jockey
for power amid cautious optimism for reform.
Ultimately, the elections will shape Iraq’s trajectory in governance, regional relations, and democratic consolidation for years to come.