Syria (The Palestine Telegraph Newspaper) – 20 January
2026 – A fragile ceasefire between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) faces collapse following renewed clashes in
northeastern Syria. Talks mediated by external parties have stalled, with both
sides reporting violations and accusing each other of breaches. The
developments risk escalating violence in the oil-rich region amid ongoing
regional tensions.
The clashes erupted near Deir ez-Zor, where Syrian regime
troops exchanged fire with SDF fighters, resulting in casualties on both sides.
Reports from the ground indicate that the incident marked the first major
violation since the ceasefire was announced last month. Negotiations in
Damascus, aimed at integrating SDF forces into the national army, have hit an
impasse over demands for autonomy.
Initial Ceasefire Agreement Details
Credit: Kasim Yusuf/Anadolu Agency
The ceasefire came into effect on 15 December 2025, following months of intermittent fighting between the SDF and Syrian government-aligned forces. Brokered by Russian and US diplomats, the deal required the SDF to halt operations east of the Euphrates River and the regime to refrain from advances in Hasakah and Raqqa provinces. Both parties committed to joint patrols and a demilitarised zone along frontlines.
Under the terms, the SDF agreed to transfer control of key
oil fields, including those in Deir ez-Zor, to Damascus administration
officials. In return, the Syrian government pledged economic aid and political
representation for Kurdish factions within a unified Syria. Implementation
began with the handover of the Al-Omar oil field on 20 December, supervised by
Russian military police.​
Moscow confirmed the deployment of 300 observers to monitor
compliance, while Washington issued statements supporting the de-escalation to
prevent ISIS resurgence. The agreement also stipulated a 30-day window for
confidence-building measures before substantive talks on governance.
Outbreak of Renewed Clashes
Credit: Reuters
Fighting resumed on 18 January 2026, when SDF units reportedly shelled regime positions near the Tishrin Dam. Syrian state media claimed the attack killed five soldiers and wounded 12 others, prompting a counteroffensive that captured two villages. SDF spokespersons countered that regime forces initiated the violence by attempting to seize a checkpoint in SDF-held territory.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, citing local
sources, reported at least 22 deaths, including 14 combatants and eight
civilians caught in crossfire. Artillery exchanges continued into 19 January,
displacing over 5,000 residents from surrounding areas. Russian mediation
efforts dispatched helicopters to the scene, but de-escalation failed as both
sides dug in positions.
US Central Command noted the presence of American special
forces advisors with the SDF, who activated defensive protocols without direct
engagement. The incident occurred hours after a regime convoy was ambushed,
which Damascus attributed to SDF-aligned militias. No independent verification
of the ambush claims emerged immediately.
Stalled Negotiation Dynamics
Talks scheduled for 15 January in Damascus collapsed when
SDF delegates walked out, citing unmet demands for local administration powers.
Kurdish representatives insisted on guarantees against forced conscription into
the Syrian Arab Army, referencing past arrests of SDF members. Regime
negotiators, backed by Iran, demanded full disarmament and dissolution of SDF
command structures.
A statement from the SDF's political arm, released on 17
January, accused Damascus of using the ceasefire to regroup forces for a
broader offensive. Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad responded that
integration offers remained on the table but required loyalty oaths to
President Bashar al-Assad. Mediators from Ankara expressed frustration, noting
Turkey's interest in curbing SDF expansion near its border.
Previous rounds in November 2025 yielded partial agreements
on water-sharing from the Euphrates, but core issues persisted. UN envoy Geir
Pedersen called for restraint, warning that breakdown could invite Turkish
intervention, as seen in prior operations like Olive Branch in 2018.
Regional and International Reactions
Credit: AP Photo/Leo Correa
Russia's Defence Ministry reported deploying additional Su-25 jets to Hmeimim airbase to enforce the ceasefire, conducting flyovers on 19 January. Iranian-backed militias in Deir ez-Zor mobilised reinforcements, heightening fears of proxy escalation. The US State Department urged all parties to return to negotiations, emphasising counter-ISIS cooperation.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry condemned SDF actions, reiterating
demands for a 30-kilometre buffer zone free of Kurdish fighters. Ankara views
the SDF as an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist group. European
Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for humanitarian access to
affected areas, where aid convoys faced delays.
Iraq expressed concern over spillover, closing border
crossings in Hasakah temporarily. The Arab League issued a statement supporting
Syria's sovereignty, implicitly backing Damascus against federalist demands.
Qatar, a SDF funder via humanitarian channels, remained silent officially.
Humanitarian and Economic Impacts
The clashes disrupted oil production in Deir ez-Zor fields,
halting exports that supply 80 per cent of Syria's revenue. Local markets in
Hasakah reported fuel shortages, with prices doubling overnight. Displacement
camps near the frontline swelled by 2,000 families, straining UNRWA resources
already stretched by winter conditions.
Medical facilities in SDF-controlled Kobane treated 45
wounded, primarily shrapnel injuries, according to World Health Organisation
updates. Access restrictions prevented full assessments, but satellite imagery
showed damage to 15 structures. Economic analysts noted the ceasefire's prior
stabilisation of the Syrian pound, now reversing with black-market rates
spiking.
International donors pledged 10 million euros in emergency
aid on 19 January, channelled through the Red Crescent. Long-term, experts
highlight the need for inclusive governance to prevent famine risks in the
northeast, where agriculture relies on Euphrates irrigation.
Historical Context of SDF-Regime Tensions
The SDF
emerged in 2015 as a US-backed coalition against ISIS, capturing swathes of
territory including Raqqa. Post-ISIS territorial gains led to frictions with
Damascus, culminating in clashes in 2018 after US withdrawal signals. Turkey's
incursions, such as Peace Spring, forced SDF overtures to the regime for
protection.
A 2019 informal understanding allowed regime redeployment to
Manbij, setting precedent for current talks. Iran's influence grew via militias
controlling border routes, complicating dynamics. The 2025 Astana process
framework positioned the ceasefire as step toward constitutional dialogue.
Ongoing ISIS sleeper cells exploited the instability,
claiming a car bomb in Hasakah on 16 January that killed three. Both SDF and
regime forces reported increased patrols targeting remnants, underscoring
shared security interests despite political rifts.
Current Military Positions and Outlook
As of 20 January, regime forces hold positions 10 kilometres
west of SDF lines near Deir ez-Zor city. SDF controls the eastern bank,
bolstered by US-supplied armoured vehicles. Russian checkpoints separate units,
but reports indicate probing attacks overnight.
No further escalations occurred by press time, with hotline
communications active between commanders. UN Security Council consultations are
set for 22 January, potentially leading to a resolution on observers. The
balance remains precarious, hinging on diplomatic breakthroughs in the coming
days.